Cab Driver’s Fallacy
The name of the Cab Driver’s Fallacy comes from the risk-aversion of taxi drivers that ride for a living. They tend to aim at earning a specific amount every day they work. When they hit their target they just quit and go home. That strategy results with them earning the most money per hour on the days they quit early. But it also means that they do worst (per hour) on those awful days where nothing is right. Even though each day they earn roughly the same amount of money sometimes they have to work far longer for the same outcome.
And that’s just the fare. Add to that additional costs of gas, wear and tear of the car and mental cost of not having any clients on slow days and you’ll see the economical disaster that results in extending your workday despite lack of customers. It’s clear that it would be far more efficient just to quit early as soon as you realize it would take you too long to meet the specified target and work your ass off on days that are more profitable.
If it sounds familiar – good, it means that you’re doing enough to experience ebbs and flows of daygame. Sometimes you capitalize on hitting the perfect vibe or the ideal weather. Sometimes it’s dark, cold and wet, you’re running a fever and just want to go home. The more you daygame the faster you notice the patterns. It’s the composition of the crowd, the energy in the air but also your feelings and anxiety level.
This is clearly an intermediate posts. As with taxi drivers – you first have to recognize which days are good and which are bad. Learn the patterns.
You cannot forsee how any given day will turn out in the end. So it’s always good to go out and verify your predictions. Of course if you have high hopes and great vibe you’ll more often experience nice sessions than when you’re down and expecting the worst. That doesn’t mean that’s the only aspect. There are far more important factors – the weather, day of the week, time of the year, events in the vicinity and some other random things that you cannot possibly control nor forecast.
You can see me out when it’s raining or when it’s cold. In the past years it was because I was obsessed with daygame and I thought I had to do it as often as I can to keep my game tight and anxieties at bay. And it was true back then. I recommend that approach to anyone starting out – crush your weaknesses. But now I’m out for different reasons. I’m checking the odds on stumbling upon a hot girl and having a good conversation. That means I have to find out if there are enough girls on the streets and also if I’m in a proper mood. I cannot do that without trying.
Let’s go back to the Cab Driver’s Fallacy. If you’re an intermediate – don’t push yourself to the limits every single time you’re out in hopes of reaching your two numbers per day. Sometimes the odds really are against you and it would be far more productive to do something else and come fresh the next day. The grind takes its toll and the more you struggle the less energy you have to spend on better days. Conversely – do everything you can and game as long as it’s possible on the days when you hit the perfect vibe. It’s just worth it.
When you travel that’s a whole different story. Hit the streets like it’s the last week of Viagra availability. When I blog I subconsiously focus on my favorite stationary daygame strategy where I go out and do just few sets almost every day. It’s the consistency that gets me results, not the spam approaching of Euro Jaunt daygame. Both are valid strategies albeit for different circumstances.
When avoiding sunk-costs fallacies you have to let some costs to sink. You cannot declare a day “bad one” if you haven’t even tried.
There are some activities that are unaffected by sunk-costs. Working out comes to mind first. Even if you feel like shit but you’re not sick then you should still go to the gym. As I already said – you won’t know if the workout will be good or bad until you start. I’ve done PRs on sessions when I thought “this is going to suck”. And even if the workout will be subpar it will still help you maintain your muscles, release endorphins, burn calories and it will just make you feel a little bit better. You won’t injure yourself just because “it’s not your day” but you will feel worse when you skip a session.
Very much like daygame, where the avoidance weasels whisper that you should just go home without trying, crawl into your comfort zone and you’ll feel better. You won’t. If there’s one message to remember from this text is this: you cannot predict if the day is going to be good or bad. So stop trying to be psychic and find out by delivering some action. After few tries you can label it and make an informed decision. Thankfully, by the time you’ll find out you’ll probably get results good enough to keep you going.